Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
